2024 Year in Review and 2025 Outlook: Four Major Changes in the Web3 Industry

The year 2024 is an extraordinary year for the Web3 industry. As an ordinary Web3 entrepreneur, I would like to summarize the changes of this year from four aspects and look forward to the development trends of 2025: from wilderness to universality, from chaos to order, from recession to bubble, from conservatism to reform.

From Grassroots to Universality: BTC Spot ETF Opens the Process of Universalization of Crypto Assets

On January 10, 2024, the approval of the BTC spot ETF is a milestone event. On November 6, a cryptocurrency-friendly candidate was elected as the President of the United States, further promoting this process. These two events respectively pushed the BTC price from $30,000 to $60,000, and then from $60,000 to $100,000.

Unlike the bull market in 2021, the motivation for capital inflow in this round of the bull market has changed. In addition to speculation, more funds are entering with purposes such as "store of value" and "anti-inflation." This has made the value support of crypto assets, especially blue-chip assets like BTC, more robust, leading to reduced volatility.

This transformation not only affects the flow of funds but also changes the mindset of industry practitioners. Now we can confidently introduce our industry to the outside world, which will help attract more talent into the Web3 field.

Looking ahead to 2025, discussions about the value of crypto assets like BTC will become more positive. We need to pay close attention to:

• Progress of Bitcoin reserve-related legislation at the national, organizational, and corporate levels.
• Remarks from politically influential figures
• The allocation of BTC in the balance sheets of publicly listed companies in the United States

From Chaos to Order: Improvement of Regulatory Framework, Breaking Through Web3 Business Scenarios

For a long time, decentralization and anonymity have been the core selling points of the Web3 industry. However, this has also provided a breeding ground for criminal activities such as fraud. The industry is moving towards a more regulated direction.

In 2024, the verdicts of several cryptocurrency-related lawsuits indicate that a more inclusive regulatory framework is taking shape. This will provide a legal basis for breaking the boundaries of Web3 business scenarios.

In 2025, we need to focus on:

• The verdict of other litigation cases
• The proposal and advancement of relevant legislation
• Personnel changes in regulatory agencies
• Remarks from key decision-makers

In terms of potential breakout business, the following two directions are worth paying attention to:

1. Ce-DeFi Scenario: Connecting traditional finance with on-chain tools to improve capital efficiency. This includes the flow of funds from traditional finance to on-chain, as well as the transmission from on-chain to the traditional financial world.

2. Application of DAO in Off-chain Entity Business Management: Exploring the management of traditional businesses through the DAO model to obtain lower-cost financial services.

From Bust to Bubble: Three Major Directions for Web3 Business Development

In 2024, the hotspots of Web3 businesses experienced significant changes. From the LRT market represented by EigenLayer at the beginning of the year, to the application layer represented by TON Mini App in the middle of the year, and then to the explosion of Meme coins in the second half of the year, the market gradually transitioned from recession to a bubble.

Looking ahead to 2025, traditional Web3 businesses may develop along the following three directions:

1. A more innovative grand narrative: Capital tends to chase high-growth tracks, and a novel narrative is more likely to attract investment.

2. More stable business revenue: The valuations of some mature sectors will return to rationality, and real income will become the focus. The DeFi and Ce-DeFi sectors may experience new breakthroughs.

3. A more balanced interest game model: The traditional VC model is facing challenges, and new financing models may emerge.

From Conservatism to Transformation: Opportunities Brought by Great Uncertainty

The year 2025 will be a year full of changes. Political changes may trigger a chain reaction in the economy, culture, and other fields, bringing many uncertainties:

• Government Debt Crisis
• Changes in monetary policy
• Shift in social values
• Adjustment of international relations

These uncertainties will bring significant volatility to the risk market. For industries in a favorable position, this volatility could present opportunities.

It is worth noting that some capital may take advantage of the window period during regime changes to adjust their risk asset allocation. This may cause short-term fluctuations in the prices of certain assets.

In this context, the NFT market may welcome new development opportunities, especially when it is combined with emerging technologies like AI.