Bitcoin is under pressure around $118,000, and the market is following the non-farm payroll data.

1. Market Observation

On Thursday, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from multiple countries. Countries without an agreement face higher tax rates, such as India at 25%, Switzerland at 39%, and South Africa at 30%. Tariffs on Canadian goods were raised from 25% to 35%, and a 40% transshipment tax will be levied on transshipped goods. This move aims to protect U.S. manufacturing and address trade imbalances.

Recent data shows that the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, reaching a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressure. However, consumer spending growth has slowed, and real disposable income has remained flat, limiting consumption willingness, with the household savings rate maintained at 4.5%. This week, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, but for the first time, two members voted in support of a rate cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that the labor market is the primary determinant of monetary policy. The market is focused on tonight's non-farm payroll data, which may influence Powell's policy direction. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September has decreased to 50/50.

Hong Kong is about to implement the "Stablecoin Regulation" which is receiving a lot of attention. Analysts believe that this marks the formal entry of stablecoin technology into the regulatory framework, and the clear framework is attracting many companies to apply for licenses to issue, indicating that related technology will shift from conceptual demonstration to large-scale commercial deployment.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $115,000 this morning but has since recovered to above $115,500. Analysts point out that $114,000 is a key support level. If it breaks through the resistance at $118,000, it may open the door to hitting a new all-time high. On the fundamental side, institutional buyers have significantly increased over the past six weeks, with a buying to selling ratio of 100:1. Spot ETFs have resumed net inflows, and news that the White House plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve is boosting market sentiment.

Ethereum briefly fell to around $3600 this morning. Analysts pointed out that although the $4000 level faced selling pressure, the rebound speed surpassed Bitcoin. Retail investors were actively buying near $3600, and the cumulative funding rate once turned negative, which was seen as a buying signal. However, cautious sentiment remains in the market, with a decline in Ethereum's ecosystem TVL and DEX trading volume share. If enterprises continue to increase their Ethereum reserves, the price may aim for $5000.

The SEC has launched a "crypto project" at the full commission level, aiming to make the United States a global center for crypto assets. This plan includes establishing token classification standards, updating custody rules, simplifying trading licenses, and creating regulatory pathways for DeFi, among other things. In the traditional financial sector, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has officially stepped down from the board, with the company bringing in the Brunei Sovereign Wealth Fund as a new major shareholder. Design company Figma has successfully gone public, holding a large amount of Bitcoin, surging 250% at opening and rising another 25% after hours.

2. Key Data (As of August 1st, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $115,619 (Year-to-date +23.51%), Daily Trading Volume $52.244 billion
• Ethereum: $3,682.83 (Year-to-date +11.05%), Daily trading volume $34.676 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC 3 sat/vB, ETH 0.23 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 47.95%/52.05%
• Sector decline: NFT down 8.98%; Meme down 8.73%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 160,329 people were liquidated, with a total amount of 630 million USD.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper edge 118359.86 USD, lower edge 116016.10 USD
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper edge 3687.83 USD, lower edge 3614.81 USD

3. ETF Flows (as of July 31)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$115 million, first net outflow after 5 days of net inflow
• Ethereum ETF: +16.9996 million USD, continuous net inflow for 20 days

4. Today's Outlook

• Hong Kong implements the Stablecoin Regulation
• Trump says the tariff deadline is August 1.
• Indonesia raises cryptocurrency trading tax rate
• Sui, GoPlus Security, ZetaChain, and Ethena will unlock tokens
• U.S. July unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data released

Top 100 largest market cap declines today: Pump.fun down 19.1%, SPX6900 down 15.4%, HEX down 14.5%, Pudgy Penguins down 12%, PulseX down 11.9%.

5. Hot News

• Strategy Q2 operating revenue is 14 billion dollars, net profit is 10 billion dollars.
• Mill City Ventures completed a $450 million private placement and launched the SUI treasury strategy.
• The three major U.S. stock indexes fell, and new stock Figma surged 256%.
• Coinbase increased its holdings by 2509 Bitcoins in the second quarter, bringing its total holdings to 11776 coins.
• The White House imposes a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, and the tariff on Canada is raised to 35%.
• An ancient giant whale holding 3963 BTC has sold another 180 BTC.
• The total holdings of corporate cryptocurrency assets exceed 100 billion dollars.
• Pudgy Penguins participate in US crypto legislation, the PENGU ETF will cover tokens and NFTs.
• The total value of 64 physical ETH treasury reserves has surpassed 10 billion USD.
• The publicly listed company xTAO holds 16 million USD in TAO, making it the largest publicly held coin company of Bittensor.
• Kaia native USDT can be used at tourist spots in South Korea, where it can be exchanged for cash at stablecoin ATMs.
• DoubleZero launches a 3 million SOL staking pool and introduces the staking token dzSOL.