Ethereum Perptual Futures volume share hits a historic high of 67%! Open interest approaches Bitcoin, is the altcoin season coming?

In the past week, the trading volume of Ethereum Perptual Futures accounted for an astonishing 67%, setting a historical record, which means that nearly two-thirds of global Crypto Assets Perptual Futures trading revolves around ETH. Glassnode's latest report indicates that despite a pullback in the market due to concerns over U.S. inflation, leveraged investors are showing an unusually strong interest in Ethereum, with ETH Holdings accounting for 43.3%, very close to Bitcoin's 56.7%. This phenomenon suggests that crypto investors are actively chasing high-risk investments, laying the groundwork for the potential arrival of altcoin season.

[Market Dynamics: Ethereum Derivatives Trading Activity Hits New High]

(BTC vs ETH Perptual Futures volume advantage 7 EMA | Source: Glassnode)

According to Glassnode's weekly report on "Derivatives Dominated Market" released on Wednesday, the trading volume of Ethereum Perptual Futures reached a historic peak of 67% for the first time, indicating extreme attention from traders towards ETH. Although Bitcoin's price has pulled back after reaching an all-time high, the market direction is currently primarily driven by the crypto derivatives market. This change suggests that market participants still see the current phase as a bull market, and Ethereum, as a key "barometer asset," is continuing to dominate in open interest.

[Data Interpretation: The gap in open interest between BTC and ETH is rapidly narrowing]

As of Thursday morning UTC, the dominance of Bitcoin spot (59.42%) still has about a four-fold gap compared to Ethereum (13.62%), but the dominance of open interest in the derivatives market is extremely close—Bitcoin at 56.7% and Ethereum at 43.3%. This stark contrast indicates that leveraged investors are exhibiting an interest level in Ethereum far exceeding the norm. Crypto analysts believe this data not only highlights investors' heightened attention to the altcoin space but also reflects a psychological shift in the market's willingness to take on greater investment risks.

[Market Background: Inflation Concerns and Federal Reserve Policy Impact]

One of the main reasons for the recent pullback in crypto asset prices is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, caused by the rebound in U.S. inflation. A Glassnode report points out that the risk appetite of investors sharply contrasts with concerns about the macroeconomy. All eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday. If his remarks signal interest rate cuts, Ethereum's price is expected to rise faster and more aggressively than Bitcoin's, potentially becoming a key catalyst for igniting the "altcoin season."

[Investment Strategy: Opportunities and Risks Under High Risk Appetite]

Current market conditions show that crypto investors are actively adjusting their portfolios, increasing their exposure to Ethereum through leveraged products such as Perptual Futures. This trading behavior reflects investors' strong confidence in the future performance of ETH, but also increases overall market volatility. Professional traders point out that a record high in Ethereum derivatives trading volume usually indicates a potential significant directional change in the market, suggesting that investors closely monitor Federal Reserve policy signals and the ETH to Bitcoin exchange rate changes.

[Conclusion]

The trading volume of Ethereum perpetual futures has reached a historical high, with open interest approaching Bitcoin, clearly indicating that leveraged investors are significantly increasing their risk exposure to ETH. Despite ongoing concerns about inflation in the United States, the risk appetite in the crypto market remains exceptionally strong, showing investors' strong confidence in Ethereum's future performance. All eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, which is likely to be a key factor in determining whether Ethereum can lead the altcoin season. In a derivatives market-dominated landscape, changes in the ETH/BTC exchange rate and signals from the Federal Reserve's policies will become the most important market indicators in the coming weeks.