Is Ethereum's next stop $5,210 or $6,946? Analysts reveal the key trends for 2025.

Ethereum (ETH) has surged nearly 20% in the past week, not only reclaiming the $4,200 mark but also hitting a new high since 2021. As market sentiment shifts from "capitulation" to "faith," on-chain data and fundamentals are simultaneously releasing favourable information signals, with analysts focusing on two potential target prices: $5,210 and $6,946. Which level will ETH reach first?

Long-term Holder Sentiment Reversal: From Capitulation to Faith

(Source: Glassnode)

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that over the past four months, the sentiment of long-term holders of ETH has undergone a significant shift - from previous selling pressure to high confidence in future trends.

Historical experience shows that this kind of transition often occurs in the early stages of a bull market cycle, as reduced selling pressure and stable positions can create a more favourable supply and demand environment for price increases.

Technical Analysis: $5,210 and $6,946 are Key Targets

According to Martinez's pricing range model, the first major resistance level for ETH is at $5,210, and after breaking through, it is expected to challenge $6,946.

$5,210: This may trigger some profit-taking, but if the trading volume supports the breakthrough, it will open up higher potential.

$6,946: Once reached, ETH will enter a new price discovery phase, and market sentiment may further heat up.

on-chain and fundamentals: smart contracts reach historical highs

(Source: Trading View)

CryptoQuant data shows that the 180-day moving average of new smart contracts on Ethereum has reached an all-time high.

This growth is closely related to the network performance improvement after the Pectra upgrade in 2025 — a significant decrease in Gas fees, enhanced scalability, and a surge in the activity of the DeFi and NFT ecosystems.

Aave: Daily trading volume surpasses 10 billion USD

OpenSea: Processing over 1 million transactions daily

The increase in the activity of smart contracts is often a leading indicator of ETH price increases, showing a simultaneous enhancement of confidence among developers and users.

Capital Situation: ETF Inflows and Corporate Increases

ETF Fund Inflow: On August 11, the net inflow of ETH spot ETF listed in the United States reached 1 billion USD in a single day, setting a historical high, and the inflow in August surpassed Bitcoin ETF for the second time.

Corporate Accumulation: Bitmine Immersion Technologies plans to raise 20 billion USD to further acquire ETH, currently holding approximately 5 billion USD worth of assets, making it the second largest known ETH holder globally.

ETH/BTC ratio: Up nearly 50% in the past month, reaching 0.37, indicating that funds are rotating from BTC to ETH.

Macroeconomic and Regulatory Environment: Multiple Favourable Information Stacking

Monetary Policy: US CPI data met expectations, and the market is betting on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September. The decline in capital costs is favorable for risk assets.

Regulatory Clarity: The "GENIUS Act" provides clearer regulations for digital asset activities, lowering the barriers for institutional entry.

Network application expansion: The application scenarios such as asset tokenization, DeFi, and on-chain settlement systems continue to grow, supporting the long-term demand for ETH.

Conclusion

Ethereum is currently in a golden phase where technical and fundamental factors resonate. If it breaks through $5,210, the market focus will quickly shift to the challenge of the high at $6,946. With ETF funds pouring in, corporate accumulation, and the expansion of network applications, ETH is expected to initiate a new price discovery cycle in 2025. Investors should closely monitor key resistance levels and on-chain data changes, as this could be the starting point for the next major bullish wave.