Price Prediction: Bitcoin price rises in sync with futures leverage, is a new high far away?

On August 19, Bitcoin was hovering around a trading price of $115,000 to $116,000 on the Gate platform, with a 24-hour fall of 0.17%. This price level marks a drop of over 7% for Bitcoin since it reached a historical high of $124,000 last week.

Under the seemingly calm volatility of the market, futures leverage is forming a complex duet with spot prices — $860 million long positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, while short-term options hedging trading volume on Binance and Coinbase hit an all-time high.

Price Data Express: Key Support Levels in Market Volatility

As of August 19, the latest price of Bitcoin on the Gate platform fluctuates between $115,000 and $116,000. Compared to the historical high of $124,000 set last week, the current price has fallen by 7.26%.

Major cryptocurrencies are all following Bitcoin into an adjustment phase:

• Ethereum (ETH) fell 2.9%, latest price 4,301.61 USD
• XRP fall reached 4.3%, trading price is 2.98 dollars
• Dogecoin (DOGE) fell by 3.9%

Performance of major cryptocurrencies prices on August 19

Token | Latest Price | 24 Hour Change | Key Dynamics --- | --- | --- | --- BTC | $115,664 | +0.28% | rebounds after falling below the 115,000 dollar support level ETH | $4,280 | -0.1% | Fall 5% from historical high XRP | $3.01 | +1.75% | Continuing the weekly adjustment trend LINK | $24.3 | -2.67% | Maintains key support level, relatively strong performance

It is worth noting that Chainlink (LINK) has shown relative strength amid the widespread fall, successfully maintaining key support levels. Analysts attribute this to its robust oracle infrastructure and the market confidence brought by recent strategic partnerships.

##Macroeconomic Pressure and Derivatives Market: The Dual Engines Triggering the Pullback

US inflation data has become a key driver in breaking market equilibrium. The producer price index (PPI) for July exceeded expectations, reigniting market concerns about tariff-driven inflation. This data directly diminishes the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

According to CME Fedwatch data, market expectations have shifted from a 50 basis point rate cut to a more moderate 25 basis points.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions are escalating. The summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska did not reach an agreement on the Ukraine issue, with Trump's stance leaning towards Moscow, supporting a comprehensive peace agreement over a ceasefire. This shift has strengthened Putin's strategic position and intensified market risk aversion.

The derivatives market reacts quickly and brutally:

• Leverage long position lost 860 million dollars within 24 hours
• Over 123,836 traders faced forced liquidation.
• Ethereum-related settlements reached 184 million dollars, exceeding Bitcoin's 124 million dollars.

Main exchange clearing data distribution (August 18-19)

Trading Categories | Total Liquidation Amount | Long Position Liquidation Ratio --- | --- | --- Bitcoin derivatives | $124M | 72% Ethereum derivatives | $184M | 68% Altcoin | $222M | 65%

Investors are turning to short-term futures and options on Gate and Coinbase for hedging protection. This behavior further amplifies market volatility, creating a feedback loop of price fall → increased liquidations → rising hedging demand → intensified volatility.

Futures Leverage and Spot Prices: The Duality of Their Symbiotic Relationship

The positive correlation between futures leverage and spot prices is particularly evident in the current market cycle. When the Bitcoin price climbed to $124,000, the futures open interest simultaneously reached a yearly high. This symbiotic relationship also plays a role when the market turns — price corrections trigger large-scale liquidations, which in turn accelerate the price fall.

The data shows that after Bitcoin fell below the key support level of 117,000 dollars, it triggered over 120 million dollars in long liquidations within 15 minutes.

This leverage-driven volatility also creates a chain reaction in traditional markets. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices show synchronized abnormal fluctuations, highlighting the increasing correlation between digital assets and traditional asset classes.

It is worth noting that Ethereum ETFs have shown strong resistance. Despite the price correction of Ethereum, its ETFs recorded a net inflow of $3.37 billion within two weeks. This figure even surpassed the $964.8 million inflow of Bitcoin ETFs during the same period, although Bitcoin's market cap is still 4.3 times that of Ethereum.

Traditional Market Signals: The Link Between Crypto Assets and Macroeconomics

The correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional markets is particularly evident in this pullback. As Bitcoin falls below 115,000 USD, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices show unusual fluctuations in sync. This linkage reflects the increasing attributes of crypto assets as risk assets.

Investors are closely watching the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. This meeting may release key signals regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, which could have a direct impact on liquidity expectations in the crypto market.

At the same time, the U.S. Department of the Treasury clarified its Bitcoin reserve policy—limited to Bitcoin seized by the government, rather than active market purchases. This policy definition alleviated market concerns about large-scale government sell-offs, but also hinted at the official cautious attitude towards crypto assets.

Gold has received inflows of funds as a traditional safe-haven asset in this environment, highlighting a shift in market risk appetite. This shift directly suppresses the short-term appeal of risk assets such as Bitcoin, especially against the backdrop of rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Long-term Outlook: Technical Pullback in a Bull Market?

Despite the short-term volatility, several institutions still maintain a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin:

• CryptoDnes research report indicates that Bitcoin may reach 148,000 USD in the current cycle.
• Trump's eldest son predicts that the Bitcoin price may break through 170,000 USD by the end of 2026.
• Grayscale has submitted an S-1 filing to launch the $GDOG ETF, indicating a continued deepening of institutional participation.

The market structure also shows positive signals. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs set a record of $40 billion in weekly trading volume last week, a figure that can rival the top ETF products on Wall Street. The performance of the Ethereum ETF is particularly impressive, with over $3.3 billion in fund inflows within two weeks.

Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on this: "The performance of the Ethereum ETF is like waking up after a year, completing a year’s growth in six weeks." This continuous inflow of institutional funds provides solid support for the market.

##Future Outlook

The crypto market is at the forefront of macro-financial transformation. The duet of futures leverage and spot prices will not cease, and a single day's clearing volume of $860 million is merely a footnote to the market's self-regulation.

The surge in hedging demand in the derivatives market indicates that professional investors are actively managing risk. As Bitcoin reclaims $116,000 on the Gate platform, the volume of open futures contracts has quietly rebounded.

Institutional investors are looking towards a more distant future, with $3.3 billion in inflows for Ethereum ETFs over two weeks, which speaks more to the issue than Trump's Bitcoin reserve policy.