#美联储政策展望# Recently observed some interesting market trends. The options market indicators show that the long-term bullish sentiment for Bitcoin is turning neutral, which may indicate difficulties in reaching new highs in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium has returned to positive, suggesting an increase in domestic demand in the U.S. These contradictory market signals are worth following.

The key lies in the Federal Reserve's policy direction. If a rate cut occurs as scheduled in September, it will inject a strong dose of confidence into Bitcoin. However, with inflation concerns escalating and poor employment data, the Federal Reserve may delay the rate cut. It is advisable to closely follow the Federal Reserve's September meeting, track capital flows and large holder activities to assess market sentiment and potential trends.

Overall, Bitcoin may maintain volatility in the short term, but if the macro environment stabilizes and ETFs continue to see inflows, there is still hope for a surge by the end of the year. However, the specific rise needs to be cautiously assessed, and the target price of $130,000 may be overly optimistic.