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This week, a captivating drama will unfold on the global economic stage, with multiple significant events converging that could have a profound impact on the financial markets.
First, the international trade landscape is being reshaped. The United States has reached a preliminary consensus on tariff frameworks with the EU and Japan, while negotiations between China and the U.S., the U.S. and Canada, and the U.S. and Mexico will determine the future direction of global trade. If China and the U.S. cannot reach an agreement, the implementation of high tariff policies could trigger significant market volatility.
Secondly, the decisions of central banks around the world will become the focus of the market. Although the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is not expected to change rates, the market will closely watch whether Powell's remarks signal a dovish stance. At the same time, the Bank of Japan's decision is also highly anticipated, as its monetary policy direction may affect the yen exchange rate and the Japanese stock market.
In addition, the release of U.S. employment data will provide important references for the health of the economy. The employment situation in the private sector, especially the performance of the service and manufacturing industries, will affect market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
The upcoming political meeting in China is expected to set the tone for economic policy in the second half of the year, and the market is looking forward to seeing more robust fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.
Inflation trends remain one of the key focuses of the market. The release of the June PCE price index will further validate the inflation trend, which has significant implications for the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
Finally, the earnings season for American tech giants has arrived. The performance of companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and AMD will directly impact the trends of the US stock market and may trigger fluctuations in the tech sector.
Starting from the middle of this week, these significant events will gradually unfold, and each change may have a substantial impact on market sentiment and direction. Investors need to remain vigilant, respond flexibly, and operate cautiously to cope with potential market fluctuations.