#以太坊交易量飙升# Ethereum spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time in over a year, and the market may be entering a new cycle. Is the alt season coming?

Ethereum spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time in over a year (25.7 billion USD vs. 24.4 billion USD). This phenomenon indeed releases multiple market signals. Currently, the inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs is strong, with 2.18 billion USD flowing in from July 14 to 18, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows during the same period, which may drive funds to rotate. Additionally, ETH's price performance has been strong, rising 26% over the past week, while Bitcoin has declined, which may also attract more investors to altcoins.
In terms of technical analysis, ETH has broken through $3800 and may challenge $4000. Analysts predict a short-term target of $4000-4500, with a medium-term potential reaching $8000-10000. However, the RSI is overbought, indicating a possible risk of correction. At the same time, the decline in exchange ETH reserves suggests an increase in long-term holders, which may support the price.
Regulatory factors, such as the possibility of the U.S. approving an ETH staking ETF, could attract more institutional funds and drive up prices. The development of Layer 2 will also enhance the Ethereum ecosystem, promote more applications, and consequently boost demand.
Ethereum spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time in over a year (25.7 billion USD vs. 24.4 billion USD). This phenomenon, combined with recent market dynamics, indeed signals the possible initiation of alt season, but it is necessary to assess its sustainability through a comprehensive multi-dimensional indicator.
Has the alt season started? Three major signals need to be verified.
The synergy between price and volume
ETH/BTC exchange rate: The current rate has risen to 0.021 (the 2024 low was 0.018), and if it breaks through 0.03 (the threshold for starting the 2021 alt season), it may confirm continued capital inflow into altcoins.
Altcoin index performance:
The Altcoin Season Index is currently at 54, close to the activation threshold of 75%, but has recently dropped from 62 to 48, indicating that sector rotation has not yet fully commenced.
Market Sentiment and Liquidity Fear and Greed Index:
The current market sentiment is at a "neutral to cautious" level (58/100), not reaching the extreme greed levels (85+) seen before the start of the alt season in 2021.
M2 Supply and Capital Increment: Global M2 money supply increased by 8.3% year-on-year, but the total market value of cryptocurrencies accounts for only 0.3% of global assets, indicating that there is still room for incremental capital to enter.
Regulatory and technical catalysts for the Cancun upgrade expectations: The Ethereum Cancun upgrade in Q4 2025 is expected to reduce Layer 2 gas fees, potentially further activating the ecosystem.
Regulatory clarity: The progress of the approval of ETH staking ETFs by the US SEC (if approved, it will attract hundreds of billions of dollars in funds) and the implementation of the EU MiCA regulations will affect the flow of funds.
Current market phase judgment cycle positioning: early stage of alt season
Bitcoin is still in the upward phase after the halving cycle (2024), but volatility has dropped to a historic low (2.72%), and the market has entered the mid-term of a "structural bull market." The trading volume of Ether has surpassed, marking the transition of funds from "BTC dominance" to "ecological diversification," but it remains to be seen whether other altcoins (such as SOL, XRP, ADA) will follow suit.