Unveiling the Truth Behind Successful Encryption Projects: Data-Driven Insights

In the cryptocurrency circle, there are often circulating suggestions on how to successfully issue tokens, such as accumulating a large number of fans, increasing user engagement, obtaining venture capital support, and controlling the circulating supply, etc. However, a recent study by Simplicity Group shows that these so-called "secrets" are actually not reliable.

The study analyzed 50,000 data points from the issuance of 40 major tokens in 2025, drawing some surprising conclusions.

The Myth of User Engagement

Many projects spend a lot of money to improve engagement metrics on social media, such as likes, shares, and comments. However, research shows that these metrics have almost no correlation with token price performance. In fact, certain engagement metrics even show a weak negative correlation with price performance.

The only slight positive correlation shown is the number of shares in the week prior to the release, but the correlation is also weak. This suggests that investing a large amount of money in participatory marketing may just be a waste of money.

Misconceptions of Low Circulation Strategies

Some people believe that issuing tokens with a very low circulating supply can create scarcity and drive up prices. However, data shows that the proportion of initial circulation to total supply has no correlation with price performance.

What really matters is the dollar value of the initial market capitalization. Research has found that for every 2.7 times increase in initial market capitalization, the price performance in the first month declines by approximately 1.56%. This relationship is very significant and can almost be regarded as a causal relationship.

Venture Capital Supported Fantasy

Obtaining large amounts of funding from well-known venture capital does not guarantee the success of a token. Research shows that there is no statistically significant correlation between the amount of funding and the performance of the token. In fact, more funding may mean a higher valuation, which needs to overcome greater selling pressure.

Misunderstanding the Timing of Speculation

Traditional views suggest that hype should be concentrated during the token issuance week to maximize the FOMO effect. However, data shows that successful projects often establish awareness before the issuance. After the issuance, user engagement typically declines as people move on to the next opportunity.

Truly Effective Strategies

So, what is truly important? Research has revealed the following key factors:

1. Actual product utility: Projects that can naturally generate valuable content perform better.

2. Transaction retention rate: Tokens that maintain trading volume after initial hype typically perform better in price.

3. Reasonable initial market value: This is the strongest predictive indicator of success. It is important to go public with a reasonable valuation, leaving room for growth.

4. Authentic communication: A consistent tone and sincere manner of communication that matches the product is more likely to win users' trust.

Why Traditional Views Can Be Wrong

This cognitive bias is not malicious, but rather stems from structural issues within social media. Platforms reward engagement rather than accuracy. Many opinion leaders actually lack real experience in issuing tokens, and their advice may be detached from reality.

The True Practices of Successful Projects

According to the data, successful projects typically:

• Focus on developing products that people really want to use
• Reasonable pricing at the time of token issuance
• Communicate sincerely with users
• Focus on the truly important metrics, rather than superficial engagement data.

For example, Quai Network successfully sparked user interest by explaining its technological innovations in an accessible way, leading to a significant rise in its token after it was launched. In contrast, some projects that rely solely on marketing strategies often see poor performance of their tokens.

Overall, truly successful projects are often those teams that silently build valuable products and adopt wise issuance strategies. Although social media is filled with various "secrets," data shows that focusing on product value and transparent communication is the key to success.