Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC is fluctuating at a high level and the short-term outlook remains uncertain.

Recently, the BTC market has experienced a significant surge, with a maximum increase of 50% since the low point in April, outperforming the Nasdaq index and setting a new historical high. However, this rapid increase has also accumulated some selling pressure.

Starting from May 22, a large-scale sell-off occurred in the Bitcoin market. This put certain pressure on Bitcoin, which was at a high level and leading the US stock market, becoming the main reason for the price correction.

This Thursday, influenced by market panic, the price of Bitcoin fell to around the $100,000 support level. Subsequently, the price continued to rebound, returning above the upward trend line.

Accompanied by the adjustment of the US stock market, the buying power of the Bitcoin spot ETF has converged, making it difficult to fully digest the selling pressure and continue to rise in the short term. It is worth noting that as prices have corrected, the outflow scale from exchanges has also increased significantly this week, indicating that new funds are taking advantage of the adjustment opportunity to accumulate positions.

The latest non-farm employment data was better than expected, creating a good atmosphere for BTC to stabilize and rebound. However, to break through to a new price range, more progress may be needed in areas such as trade tariffs, encryption policies, or the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy Trends

In May, the United States added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly higher than the market expectation of 126,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, showing no deterioration. This slightly better-than-expected data drove the three major U.S. stock indices up, while gold fell.

Currently, the market's expectations for the US economy are close to a "soft landing", which means the economy is gradually slowing down to a sustainable growth level while avoiding severe recession or large-scale unemployment. Current economic and employment data generally align with this characteristic; although GDP growth has declined, it is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's active adjustments, inflation is decreasing in an orderly manner, and the unemployment rate remains stable.

In terms of international trade, leaders from the US and China recently had their first call since the tariff war. Both sides emphasized the principles of mutual respect and equality, and agreed that representatives will soon hold discussions in the UK. However, negotiations are still ongoing, and there is still some distance to a formal agreement.

On the other hand, as the United States raises steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, the Canadian government has also stated that it will take retaliatory measures.

This week, the market has also been influenced by other factors. Criticism from a well-known entrepreneur regarding the "Beautiful Great Act" has sparked controversy, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock prices of related companies and causing a temporary impact on overall market sentiment.

Overall, in the context of employment data slightly exceeding expectations and slow progress in trade negotiations, US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar have maintained a fragile balance over the past week and have slightly tilted towards a more optimistic direction.

Crypto Market Analysis

Bitcoin's rebound trend since April has outperformed the Nasdaq index. Currently, the US stock market is gearing up to challenge previous highs, while Bitcoin reached an all-time high on May 22.

From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin underwent a two-week adjustment after reaching a new high. Last week it retraced by 3.07%, and this week it experienced significant fluctuations with a slight increase of 0.08%. On the weekly chart, a long-legged doji pattern is evident. During the adjustment process, trading volume showed signs of contraction.

The maximum correction in the past two weeks was about 10%, and it remained above the previous support level. The lowest point occurred this Thursday, just touching the upward trend line.

Considering that the US stock market has not yet broken new highs, it is predictable for BTC to experience such adjustments after reaching new highs, which is also a healthy trend. In the short term, it may maintain a certain period of fluctuation and consolidation. To break new highs and enter a new price range, there may need to be more positive developments in trade policies, encryption regulations, or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Market Supply and Demand Analysis

Since April, Bitcoin has rebounded from its low point with a maximum increase of 50%. As the price reached a historic high, both short-term speculators and long-term holders have experienced a certain degree of profit-taking. This selling pressure peaked on May 22 and has gradually weakened since then.

It is worth noting that, alongside the decrease in sell-offs, the outflow of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges is increasing. This week, the outflow reached 76,520 BTC, significantly higher than the usual weekly level of 10,000 to 20,000 BTC. This large-scale outflow may indicate that long-term investors are relatively satisfied with the current price level.

Capital Flow Analysis

After experiencing a period of increase, even the funds that entered the market through the ETF channel have seen a certain degree of profit-taking.

In the past two weeks, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen slight capital outflows, with $135 million flowing out last week and $128 million this week. This outflow occurred against the backdrop of a significant rise in Bitcoin and fluctuations in the US stock market.

It is difficult to determine when the funds from this channel will return to net inflow, but considering the overall trend of the US stock market, concerns about a significant decline may not be excessive. Although there is a technical possibility of a further pullback to around 100,000, timing it can be challenging. In a situation where supply and demand reach a fragile balance, a breakthrough rise could suddenly occur in a short period.

Market Cycle Indicators

According to eMerge Engine data, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is currently at 0.625, in an upward phase.