Generative AI is developing rapidly and has enormous potential

McKinsey's latest AI report shows that generative AI is developing at an astonishing rate, with its potential economic benefits far exceeding previous expectations. The report predicts that AI could reach human level sooner than imagined, with a median forecast before 2030.

Compared to the predictions in 2017, the new report is more optimistic about the prospects of AI development. The report points out that AI has deeply penetrated all aspects of our lives. Unlike the brief attention sparked by AlphaGo defeating Lee Sedol in 2016, the emergence of generative AI products like ChatGPT this year has brought broader and more lasting effects. These tools are available for everyone, from content creation to graphic design to making PPTs, AI is changing the way we work.

The report focuses on the speed of AI development, pointing out that in just a few months, there have been significant advancements in areas such as image, video, audio, and code. Currently, our understanding of generative AI capabilities is still in its early stages, which is also the reason for McKinsey conducting this research.

From an economic impact perspective, the report identifies 63 generative AI application scenarios covering 16 business functions. If widely applied across various industries, it could bring economic benefits of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually. This is an increase of 15% to 40% compared to the $11 trillion to $17.7 trillion predicted in 2017.

The report also analyzes the potential impact of generative AI on approximately 850 occupations. Experts simulated various scenarios to estimate when AI could perform over 2,100 job tasks that make up the global economy. The results show that the total economic benefits of generative AI could reach up to $6.1 trillion to $7.9 trillion annually.

From a potential perspective, generative AI will impact most business functions. However, when measuring the proportion of technical impact relative to function costs, the annual value of customer operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, and R&D accounts for approximately 75% of the total value.

Generative AI can also bring value to the entire company by improving internal knowledge management systems. Its natural language processing capabilities can help employees more easily query and retrieve internal company knowledge, enhancing decision-making efficiency.

The report forecasts that, based on the current performance of generative AI, its capabilities will reach human levels faster than previously estimated in various aspects. For example, the time for AI to achieve human-level natural language understanding has been advanced from 2027 to 2023.

Experts predict that generative AI may have the greatest impact on knowledge work, particularly in activities involving decision-making and collaboration. The potential for automating expertise has increased by 34 percentage points, while the potential for automating management and talent development has risen from 16% in 2017 to 49% in 2023.

In the face of the rapid development of AI, the report calls on all stakeholders to actively respond. Business leaders need to consider how to leverage the potential value of AI and manage risks, government policymakers need to formulate corresponding policies for changes in the workforce, and everyone needs to think about how to strike a balance between the conveniences and impacts brought by AI.

Overall, this report provides a comprehensive analysis of the significant impact of the generative AI boom on society, particularly in the economic aspect, offering important references for our understanding and response to the changes of the AI era.