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Recent technical analysis of Bitcoin price movements reveals potential downside risks. Charts from multiple time frames show that geopolitical events have led to a technical breakdown lasting several weeks, indicating that the current market is unusually sensitive to external factors.
Short-term timeframe analysis shows that Bitcoin has significantly fallen below the important support level of $106,500, while three clear rejection points have emerged in the range of $109,500 to $110,500. These signs indicate a considerable selling pressure. This bearish breakout has pushed the Bitcoin price below the psychological level of $105,000, with the next major demand zone located near the integer level of $100,000.
The four-hour chart analysis further shows that since Bitcoin reached a high of $112,000, the price has been operating in a descending channel. Recently, the price broke below the support line of the channel's lower boundary, which usually indicates that the downtrend may accelerate.
The trading volume data indicates that as geopolitical news escalates, selling activity has noticeably increased, while the resistance level around $112,000 seems to pose a significant obstacle to any rebound attempts. Technical structures suggest that any price rebound may face new selling pressure, and the channel breakout pattern points to the $100,000 to $102,000 area.
What is more concerning is the collapse of the ascending wedge pattern in the Ichimoku cloud chart on the four-hour timeframe, indicating that Bitcoin has fallen below the cloud, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. The ascending wedge typically suggests that while prices are rising, the buying pressure is actually weakening, and a wedge breakout often leads to a significant decline, with a target price of around $96,000.
This technical target aligns with the previous key support level, indicating that Bitcoin may drop about 10% from its current level. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, or if other macroeconomic factors put pressure on risk assets, the market could face greater downside risks.