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According to the latest analysis by economist Alex Krüger, the current tensions between Israel and Iran may only have a short-term impact on the market and are unlikely to form a new long-term trend. Krüger believes this situation is more akin to a regional conflict pattern in early 2024, rather than a full-scale war. The key issue for market participants should be when to seize the opportunity to get on board at low points.
Looking back at the event development context at the beginning of 2024: On April 12, the market first fell due to related rumors; on April 13, after Iran launched missiles at Israel, the market dropped again; from April 14 to 18, the market remained tense while waiting for Israel's possible response; on April 18, Israel carried out a relatively restrained counter-strike, avoiding Iran's key facilities, and the market then showed a significant rebound. After this series of events, both sides seemed to temporarily halt open confrontations and shifted to more covert actions.
Geopolitical events of this nature often have a temporary impact on financial markets. Investors need to distinguish between short-term noise and long-term trends, maintaining rational judgment during market panic.