XRP Has a 70% Chance of Beating Bitcoin, According to Analysts

The XRP/BTC chart newly published on June 12 by a market technical expert named Dr. Cat has sparked new controversy for one of the most stubborn trading pairs in cryptocurrency. The analyst, posting on X, argues that despite a sharp decline over the past six weeks, the conditions still favor a final breakthrough for XRP that leaves Bitcoin behind. He assigns this scenario a formidable probability of 70 percent. XRP compared to Bitcoin: 70% chance of breakthrough, but when? The focus of Dr. Cat's thesis is the level of 2.041 satoshi, where three separate Ichimoku time frames—monthly, bi-monthly, and tri-monthly—intersect. "The price continuously erodes support after support with no response from the buying side as if the support does not exist," he acknowledged, but he emphasized that this specific threshold is the "most important support." The candle on the attached one-month chart is currently hovering just slightly below this line; he warns that a decisive monthly close below this line will completely reverse the three-day structure in a bearish direction and disperse this currency pair into unpredictable and potentially chaotic ranges.

Nonetheless, this strategist asserts that history is on the side of XRP buyers. "The price has experienced many years of strong performance and is rising with lower levels for this current attack," he wrote, considering the past twelve quarters as a prolonged accumulation that has never given up its macro higher low series. He believes that the roll-up will allow XRP to execute at least a "small attack ... in August" towards the 3,000 satoshi region - an increase of about 45 percent from the current level - and could drive a "much larger attack" as the broader market cycle matures. Optimism is not unconditional. Dr. Cat calculates a 30 percent chance of a complete failure if 2,041 sats does not succeed on a monthly closing basis. According to that bearish branch, the crossover could drop to 1,800 - 1,900 sats, attempting a weak recovery or continuing to "bleed slowly down to the bottom of the range where it started the monster move." In such a failure, he would not expect the "monster bullish move" long awaited until at least Q4 2025.

Therefore, currently, the market is relying on a single number. Staying above 2.041 and Dr. Cat clearly sees the potential to outperform Bitcoin—first modestly, then significantly. Slide down below it, and the trajectory will dissolve into what he bluntly calls an "unpredictable/undulating" void. Regardless, XRP traders now know exactly where the pivot point of the cycle lies and how thin the margin of error has become.